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Record employment in construction sector undermines bets that the Fed will soon pivot

The building boom has helped push unemployment to around its lowest level in more than 50 years. That is perplexing investors who want to see the Federal Reserve switch course on interest rates. Construction spending and employment have risen to records this year, boosted by government outlays for infrastructure, a domestic manufacturing renaissance and a wave of apartment building that got off to a slow start during the pandemic when prices for building materials, such as lumber, were sky high. Construction companies with jobs ranging from airport overhauls to bathroom renovations said they have enough work booked to maintain payrolls—for years in some cases. Even home builders, which slowed down last year when rates began to rise, are ramping up into spring. The persistent strength in a sector that is usually among the first to suffer job loss when borrowing costs rise is undermining investor hopes that the Fed’s aggressive interest-rate increases would quickly slow inflation and rejuvenate the stock market. 

It also threatens to upend bets in the market that recession and lower rates are on the horizon. Investors are trading government bonds as if rate cuts will come within the next year and buying technology stocks, bitcoin and other speculative assets that surged when borrowing costs were near zero. The issue for investors is that the longer it takes for construction activity and employment to decline, the longer it will be before the central bank can cut rates. “Through this whole cycle,  many have expected a much faster slowdown than has occurred,” said Bob Elliott, cofounder and chief executive of asset manager Unlimited. “Macroeconomic cycles take years to play out.” There are signs of slowdown, to be sure. Apartment construction is expected to decline once the latest batch of buildings is finished. Problems at regional banks are drying up financing for some projects. Spending on home improvement and repairs is forecast to decline over the next year, the first contraction since the depths of the foreclosure crisis in 2010, according to a closely watched barometer of the remodeling industry. “Maybe we’re starting to see the effects of higher cost of capital on interest-rate-sensitive sectors,” said Anirban Basu, chief economist at trade group Associated Builders and Contractors, which said its measure of construction backlog declined in March to the lowest level since August. “The Federal Reserve raises rates until something breaks and something is starting to break.” Even when construction employment declines, the effects might not be felt immediately in the broader economy. During the 2008 financial crisis, the number of people working in residential construction peaked in April 2006 and had fallen about 15% before overall employment began to drop about two years later, Bureau of Labor Statistics data show. Meanwhile, millions of homeowners are locked into low mortgage rates, which is keeping existing homes off the market and stoking demand for new construction, builders and analysts said. New-home sales climbed 9.6% in March, the Census Bureau said. PulteGroup Inc., the country’s third-largest home builder, reported record first-quarter revenue last week after selling 6% more houses at an average price 9% higher than a year earlier. Executives said they are adding sales and construction staff and building more spec homes, especially those aimed at first-time buyers. “They don’t have a home to sell. And so they are not hampered by the low interest rate,” said Chief Executive Ryan Marshall. Pulte’s shares are up 47% this year and among the leaders of the S&P 500 stock index, which has gained 8.6%. Employment in residential construction has been buoyed by the biggest burst in apartment building since the mid-1980s. Apartment projects were delayed after the Covid-19 lockdown because of the budget-straining expense of building materials, such as lumber, which shot to more than twice the prepandemic high and added millions of dollars to construction costs. “People couldn’t build their projects, so they kicked the can down the road,” said Ivan Kaufman, chairman and CEO of Arbor Realty Trust Inc., which lends to landlords. Though prices for lumber and other materials have come down, developers now face construction financing that is about twice as expensive as it had been and landlords are unlikely to be able to offset greater borrowing costs with rent increases, which should hinder new projects, Mr. Kaufman said. So far, the roughly $50 billion decline in residential construction spending over the past year has been more than made up for by gains in commercial projects, including highways, hotels and hospitals. A record $108 billion was spent building factories last year, and the amount has risen this year, to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of about $141 billion in February, according to Census Bureau data. The 2021 infrastructure bill and last years’ climate, tax and healthcare law are pumping money into industrial projects—such as renewable-energy facilities and railroad expansions—that promise to keep workers busy for years.

سطح بیکاری رکوردی در بخش ساخت و ساز، به دنبال رونق ساخت و ساز، به سطحینده‌ای مانند دهه پنجاه سال گذشته رسیده است. این مسئله برای سرمایه‌گذارانی که می‌خواهند حکم جلوگیری از بالا رفتن نرخ بهره را فراهم کنند، مشکل بوجود آورده است. خرج ساخت و ساز و استخدام، بعنوان دو عنصر کلیدی در این حوزه، در طی امسال به سطحینده‌ای رکوردی رسیده است که به واسطه صرفه‌جویی دولت در زیرساخت، بازگشت تولید داخلی و افزایش ساخت و ساز آپارتمان، که در زمانی که هزینه مواد ساختمانی مانند چوب بسیار بالا بود، به طور کند آغاز شد، تشویق شده‌است. شرکت‌های ساخت و ساز با شغل‌هایی از تجدید مسافرتگاه تا تعمیرات حمام، گفته‌اند که از کار برای چندین سال به خوبی کافی دارند. حتی سازندگان خانه، که در سال گذشته در موقعیت کاهش نرخ بهره قرار گرفتند، در بهار خود راه‌اندازی می‌کنند. قدرت پایدار در یک بخش که به راحتی در صورت افزایش هزینه‌های قرض‌الحسنه، شغل خود را از دست می‌دهد، می‌تواند امیدهای سرمایه‌گذاران را به زیر سؤال ببرد که افزایش قوی نرخ بهره، باعث کاهش سریع تورم و نوسازی بازار سهام شود. همچنین، این مسئله می‌تواند شرط‌بندی‌های بازار را که رکود و کاهش نرخ در آینده رخ خواهد داد، بهم بریزد. نشانه‌هایی از کاهش نیز وجود دارد. ساخت و ساز آپارتمان پس از پایان شدن پروژه‌های جدید انتظار می‌رود کاهش پیدا کند. مشکلات بانک‌های منطقه‌ای سبب شده است که برخی پروژه‌ها فاقد منبع تأمین مالی باشند. به گفته یکی از نخبگان صنعت ساخت و ساز، در بلندمدت، با توجه به پایین آمدن سریع هزینه سرمایه، تأثیربخش است. علاوه براین، تعدادی از دارندگان وام مسکن هنوز به نرخ کم فعلی خود گره خورده‌اند و باعث شده است که مسکن‌های موجود به بازار عرضه نشوند و بازار جهت به سمت مسکن جدید گرایش پیدا کند. مصرف در زمینه بهبود و تعمیر خانه نیز در طول سال آینده کاهش پیدا خواهد کرد. سهم اشتغال در بخش ساخت و ساز زمینه لازم برای تعمیرات باقی‌مانده در سال ۲۰۱۰ را فراهم می‌کرد. در حال حاضر، حدود ۵۰ میلیارد دلار کاهش در مصرف ساخت و ساز واحدهای مسکونی در سال گذشته، توسط افزایش پروژه‌های تجاری به خوبی جبران شده است، شامل پروژه‌های راه‌ها، هتل‌ها و بیمارستان‌ها. ۱۰۸ میلیارد دلار رکورد خرج ساخت کارخانه را در سال گذشته ثبت کرده‌اند و مقدار آن در طی سال جاری به حدود ۱۴۱ میلیارد دلار در ماه فوریه رسیده است. این اطلاعات، برای بسیاری از پروژه‌های صنعتی و تفریحی که وعده ای برای بهبود زیرساخت‌ها دارند، نشان‌دهنده پایدار بودن ساخت و ساز است.