دانلود رایگان روزنامه مجلات و کتاب انگلیسی کتاب صوتی کمیک

 Demand proves resilient despite inflation

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Makers of everyday household goods say consumers are sticking with them despite double-digit price increases. A raft of American and European companies producing packaged food and other staples such as tissues and cleaning products have reported results over the past week or so, and the results are encouraging. The latest was Colgate-Palmolive on Friday, which said organic sales—a key industry metric that strips out the impacts of currency fluctuations, acquisitions and divestitures—increased 10% from a year earlier in the first quarter. Analysts had expected the consumer-products company to log growth of 6.9%, according to VisibleAlpha. Colgate’s overall organic pricing was 12% higher, meaning underlying sales volume fell 2%. But that is an encouraging figure. It suggests that elasticities, or the degree to which consumers respond to price increases by reducing purchases, were mild in the first quarter, and indeed improving: In the fourth quarter, Colgate’s sales volume fell 4% on 12.5% higher prices. The picture was much the same across the sector. At Unilever, the European consumer giant behind brands such as Dove soap and Hellmann’s mayonnaise, sales volume was down just 0.2% on 10.7% higher prices. At Coca-Cola, volumes were actually up 1% even as pricing was up 11%, delivering 12% organic sales growth. “Every quarterly result feels the same in Q1,” remarked Bernstein analyst Bruno Monteyne, who covers European staples companies, in a note. There are differences between how the various companies report sales metrics, and differences between accounting standards used by European and American companies. But using broadly comparable figures, for nine major companies on both sides of the Atlantic that have reported results since April 21, pricing was up 11.3% from a year earlier while volumes fell just 1.8%. This suggests consumers worldwide have been able to absorb price increases, and have yet to trade down significantly to cheaper options such as private-label products. Tight labor markets and increasing wages, especially in the U.S., are likely a factor supporting consumers at the low end of the income spectrum who might be expected to adjust shopping habits first. What is more, private-label competitors have been forced to raise prices as well in response to cost to inflation, companies said. There were some exceptions. In a conference call with analysts, Unilever said elasticities have been higher for highly discretionary foods such as ice cream. As was the case last year, elasticities were generally higher for household goods than packaged food, perhaps in part because the perceived quality gap with private label isn’t as great. The two companies with the biggest volume declines were Kleenex-maker Kimberly-Clark at 5%, and Reckitt Benckiser, the U.K. company that produces Lysol cleanser, at 4.5%. But in both cases the pace of decline moderated significantly from the fourth quarter. This is encouraging because it suggests investors are adjusting to sticker shock after a lag. And, in the case of Lysol, sales were coming off an inflated base from the first quarter last year, when the Omicron Covid-19 variant was prevalent. On average, shares prices of the nine companies are up around 7% so far this year—in line with the S&P 500’s performance. The four major European companies in the group have fared better, climbing by an average around 12%, perhaps because they faced lower expectations going into the year. Of course, should a U.S. or global recession come that hits consumer incomes, a different set of challenges will emerge for these companies. However, recent track records suggest their stocks are still fulfilling their traditional role as a source of resilience in investor portfolios

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Chinese Drillers Step Up Activity

Moves are put of push for energy security, rising trade with U.S.- sanctioned nations

China’s biggest oil companies are increasing their drilling at home and signing big deals overseas, part of a push for energy security that has also led to rising trade with countries that are subject to U.S. sanctions. China’s demand for crude oil is likely to hit 15.6 million barrels a day this year, around 5% higher than last year, according to a forecast from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. The country is the second-largest consumer of oil after the U.S., so any change in its behavior could have a big impact on global prices. The reopening of China’s economy after recurring lockdowns and tight pandemic restrictions has allowed people to travel freely again and let factories reopen, leading to more demand for crude oil. But Beijing is increasingly seeking alternatives in the global oil market, including expanding its drilling at home and signing deals with foreign countries including Brazil, Qatar and Afghanistan. China’s domestic oil companies produced 18.2 million tons of crude in March, the highest level since December 2014, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Also in March, Cnooc Ltd., one of the largest state-owned oil majors, said it discovered an oil field in the Bohai Sea, in the country’s northeast, that would add a hundred million tons of reserves to China’s oil supply. China records its crude production and imports in metric tons, a weight measure. The conversion to barrels, a volume measure more commonly used around the world, isn’t straightforward because it depends on various factors including the density and composition of the oil. The emphasis on domestic production partly reflects China’s nervousness about energy security, which became a strategic priority for many countries following Russia’s in vasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Zhang Jianhua, head of China’s National Energy Administration, said in mid-April that “increasing oil and gas exploration and development, while increasing reserves and production” was crucial to China’s energy security. China’s strategic petroleum reserves are part of this push for greater energy security. The country topped up its reserves during the middle of the Covid-19 lockdown, when oil prices were low, said Ricardo Leiman, chief investment officer and founding partner of KLI Asset Management, a commodities-focused firm. But China has never published how much oil it has in reserve. “In an increasingly polarized world, security of crude supply is paramount,” said Kelvin Yew, a senior oil trader at Ocean Leonid Investments, a hedge fund. He said China is always motivated to import oil, as there is a big gap between the country’s own output and its refining demand. “Increasing domestic production helps, but the shortfall versus demand is huge,” he added. In March, China imported 52.3 million tons of crude oil, the most since June 2020, according to its General Administration of Customs. Analysts expect imports to meet about 70% of China’s total oil demand this year. “China’s domestic demand for oil is going to grow ahead of its ability to increase the domestic supply,” said KLI’s Mr. Leiman. China also has struck deals with countries that are subject to Western sanctions, including Russia and Iran. That helps it buy oil at a discount to global market prices. After the Trump administration pulled out of a nuclear agreement and reimposed sanctions on Iran, China became a crucial source of oil revenue for the country.